As AI makes baseline competence cheap and universal, the workforce will start splitting along a different line entirely: not who's smartest, but who still chooses to put in real mental effort. This is the central argument in David Brooks' essay "The People Who Will Thrive in the AI Age."
The workforce split to watch: AI is predicted to sort people into three groups based on their relationship to mental effort, not their raw ability.
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Productive passengers get faster short-term output but lose capability over time.
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Reluctant optimizers intend to stay sharp and usually don't.
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Mental marathoners actively build capacity through AI rather than outsourcing to it.
Related research suggests that skills decay is measurable, not theoretical:
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ActivTrak found AI adopters increased business software use 94%, while focused, uninterrupted work time fell 9%. This compromised judgment on fast growing projects.
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Carnegie Mellon researchers found employees who lost AI access after just 10 minutes of use performed worse than those who'd never used the tool.
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Wharton researchers found employees accepted AI's factual errors 80% of the time.
Learnings for CHROs:
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Redesign learning and development around volition, not just tool adoption. People stay motivated when they have autonomy, are building real skill, and feel supported. AI training programs built around efficiency miss all three.
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Build "AI-free" checkpoints into critical workflows. Rotating tasks between AI-assisted and unassisted work, as Brooks suggests, could become a practical safeguard in decision-heavy functions.
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Reframe apprenticeship models. Brooks argues AI offers "competence without apprenticeship." For CHROs managing early career pipelines, this is a direct challenge to how junior talent traditionally builds expertise.
